Seismic political changes are occurring unnoticed. Racial minorities have always been important in Chicago elections, but population changes now have profound effects on national politics as well. Minorities helped Barack Obama win the White House and Democrats control Congress until their setback in 2010 midterm elections.

In 2008, nearly one in four voters was a racial minority. Whites still made up 76 percent of the 131 million people who voted nationally, but blacks were 12 percent, Latinos 7 percent and Asians 2.5 percent.

In the 2010 election 6.6 million Latinos voted, again representing 7 percent of all voters. But they are predicted to cast as many as 12 million ballots in 2012. They continue to grow more rapidly in population and in voters than any other segment of society.

These trends are being played out even faster in Illinois. In 2008, 11 percent of the Illinois electorate was Latino, 13 percent was black and 6 percent was other (mostly Asian). With over 708,000 eligible Latino voters in Illinois, they are enough to swing any statewide election and many local ones.

Latinos are also 29 percent of the Chicago population and 24 percent of Cook County. These demographic figures have major political implications because 52 percent of white voters are Republican nationally and only 39 percent call themselves Democrats, as more whites move towards the GOP. But 86 percent of African Americans and 64 percent of Latino voters continue to identify as Democrats.

The big story is the population change that will occur. While Latinos are only 29 percent of the Chicago population now, 41 percent of the children under 18 years of age in Chicago are Latino. As these children become eligible to vote, Latinos are going to become a major political force — if they gain citizenship, register and vote.

In the redistricting plan just passed by the Illinois General Assembly and signed by Gov. Pat Quinn, Latinos were able to keep one U.S. Congress seat while blacks were able to hold the three seats they have currently. In state legislative districts, Latinos, blacks, and Asians were mostly grouped together, theoretically allowing them to influence legislators.

But a major political war is shaping up at City Hall. African Americans currently have a majority of voters in 19 wards, while Latinos have the majority in 11 wards (though two are represented by the powerful white aldermen Ed Burke and Dick Mell). But by population, Latinos should have majorities in nearly 15 wards. That would mean whites and blacks would lose control of four wards. So racial battle lines are drawn as the ward lines get drawn in the next six months.

We are a multi-racial city and state, although segregation still holds sway in Chicagoland. Multi-culturalism will dominate our future political life — that is our new political reality.

The winning political strategy in the future requires attracting minority voters, though Republicans seem particularly tone deaf to this. Yes, they get more white voters now by opposing all immigration reforms except stronger borders. They attract white voters by making racist slurs about President Obama. But these are losing strategies in the long run.

Minorities like blacks, Latinos, and Asians don’t automatically align with each other’s interests and political agenda. Demographic and cultural changes make our politics more nuanced. Local politics is going to require new coalitions.

The result of the population changes will be that if the economy improves and overseas wars begin to abate, then Obama will be reelected — minority voters will make sure of that. And in the city council battle, whites will put Chinatown voters in a single ward and give Latinos at least two or three new wards to control in order to cement racial alliances.

Up until now, Latinos have been junior partners in mayoral regimes. Now they have the numbers to demand an equal seat at the table. And Asian voters are now numerous enough to demand to be heard.

Demography is not always destiny, but in politics, numbers count.

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By Daniel B from Printers Row
Posted: 08/19/2011 11:01 PM

Simpson, you are an idiot. The Democrats have had control of Cook County & Chicago forever, using that power to crowd out minorities in government, unions, and education; yet you try some misdirection that Republicans are tone deaf and make up stories that Republican's are somehow now "making racists slurs about President Obama"? Seems UIC hires liars and bombers - when does Obama start teaching at UIC?

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By Boyee from Mid-North in Lincoln Park
Posted: 08/19/2011 10:02 PM

They are still a minority in being able to vote. Just over 75 percent of the largest Latino group in Chicago, Mexicans are illegal aliens, not having voting rights. Neither party seems to want to follow the Federal law and deport any race/color/creed that illegally immigrates. The Federal government should follow the law for ALL no matter what the ethnicity!

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By Southsider from Confused about the term minority
Posted: 08/19/2011 4:49 PM

If "Latinos are busting at the seams in terms of population, then why are they referred to as "Minority?" Latinos do not appear to be minority anymore.

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By LennyMcTaggart from Austin
Posted: 08/19/2011 4:17 PM

"Demography is not always destiny" It does mean less white people though,presumably all the way to complete extinction because we can`t be "racist".

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By Matt Wos from Dearborn Park
Posted: 08/18/2011 7:13 PM

or if Fioretti can be traded for Pat Dowell, I would take that in a heartbeat. Race, ethnicity and the like doesn't matter for me. Competence does. Dowell stands up for her constituents and is consistent, Flip-Flop Fioretti says and does whatever is good for Fioretti at the time. Flip today, flop tomorrow, it goes on and on. The Sun-Times and Tribune, who I often don't agree with, hit it right on the head about him during the election.

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By Matt Wos from Dearborn Park
Posted: 08/18/2011 7:00 PM

Whatever will increase the chances of my neighborhood of being remapped out of Bob "Flip-Flop" Fioretti's ward and IN to Brendan Reilly's ward I am in favor of. The contrast between the two couldn't be greater.

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By teresa
Posted: 08/18/2011 4:50 PM

I\' don\'t know what some of the comments are talking about. No Mexican I know identifies as white. My friends who are half Mexican/white identify as Hispanic. I guess in front of whites some say their white.

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By Confused about the tern minority from Southside
Posted: 08/18/2011 10:14 AM

To: Old Timer Thanks for your clarification Latinos being white. Are they white and also minority? Maybe I'm the only one who doesn't know the answer to this question.

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By Old Timer from 14th and Michigan
Posted: 08/18/2011 9:44 AM

Many working class ethnic whites consider Mexicans \"white\" and intermarriage between such people and Mexicans is not uncommon, indeed I know many Irish-Mexican marriages (including two in my family) and a few Polish-Mexican and Italian-Mexican marriages.

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By Confused About the term minority from Southside
Posted: 08/17/2011 11:54 PM

I was told that when you ask a Latino in the job place what race they are, they will tell you that they are white. I've been told this time and time again. So why are you calling them minority?