In 2010, Republican electoral waves crashed over Illinois Democratic rocks. The government pendulum, which had swung heavily to Democratic control, swung back. But this is not necessarily a permanent shift. As opinion waves roll in, they roll back out. The pendulum of voter unhappiness could swing back again in the next election.

Voters in American elections often vote retrospectively. To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, they asked themselves “Am I better off than two years ago?” And the answer to that question was a resounding “No.” The reasons for voter dissatisfaction are clear: unemployment is 10%, there is an epidemic of home foreclosures, small businesses are failing, and the middle class is shrinking. We are still tied down in two costly foreign wars and have foreign enemies who want to destroy us.

Midterm 2010 was not a permanent realigning election like Franklin Roosevelt’s in 1932. This year’s election did not move large numbers of voters to switch party allegiances and support a new dominant political party for the next generation.

According to the Pew Research Center polls, 52% voters expressed an unfavorable opinion of the GOP, roughly the same as the views of the Democrats which were also 53% unfavorable. The center concluded that, “The outcome of this election represented a repudiation of the political status quo, rather than a vote of confidence in the GOP or a statement in support for its policies.”

Nor did this election change Illinois from a Blue Democratic State to a Red Republican one despite Republican gains. It revitalized a weak Illinois Republican Party, but voter preferences could easily swing back to the Democratic Party in 2012.

The Tea Party driven national Republican wave did sweep into Illinois. The clearest evidence is in the Congressional Elections. Mark Kirk defeated Alexi Giannoulias for President Obama’s former U.S. Senate seat. Bob Dold held onto Kirk’s former 10th District seat. The Republicans, depending upon whether or not they win Melissa Bean’s 8th district seat which is still being counted, won back at least three suburban congressional seats from the Democrats — Debbie Halvorson in the 11th, Bill Foster in the 14th, and Phil Hare in the 17th.

The Republicans needed to win 39 Democratic seats to win back the U.S. House and they won at least 60. In the U.S. Senate in which the Republicans needed to win nine seats to gain control, they won only six so the Democrats retained a small majority there.

Elections have real consequences. According to Business Week Magazine, the business community, which heavily funded the Republican campaigns, look for the Republicans to weaken or block “what they consider President Obama’s anti-business policies on health care, the environment, taxes and financial reform.” The election results have immediately bolstered Republican efforts to extend Bush-era tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000.

In Illinois, Republicans won two constitutional or state-wide offices with Judy Baar Topinka elected as State Comptroller and Dan Rutherford elected as state treasurer. This provides them important positions from which to criticize the Democrat controlled state government.

But they lost the big prize — Pat Quinn was reelected as Governor. Moreover, Democrats still have strong majorities in the Illinois House and Senate. Since the state faces at least a $13 billion deficit, the Governor will lead an effort to pass an income tax increase in the lame duck session. While there will not be the automatic 10 percent across-the-board cuts that Brady would have instituted, there will be budget cuts. Otherwise the budget deficit will grow to $20 billion by 2015 and $30 billion by 2020, which is unsustainable.

Locally, Toni Preckwinkle won the position of Cook County Board president. She now has the difficult task of reforming that backward government and eliminating it $300 million budget gap.

With these preliminaries over, now the real battle royal begins for mayor of Chicago.

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By Mark Montgomery from Hell's Ktchen NYC
Posted: 11/18/2010 0:18 AM

The Republicans are worthless, do-nothing, negative obstructionists who don't deserve to be taken seriously. I hope Barack bypasses the Republicans and moves his own agenda forward using his executive authority. The Republicans have no answers to any of our problems and granting them a tax reduction next year is not a way to create jobs. TAX THE RICH! Mark Montgomery NYC, NY boboberg@nyc.rr.com