This is the first election of the post-Daley era. Yet, Chicago political change doesn’t usually happen in one step. Rather the transition is a Texas two-step or a three-step waltz.

After Richard J. Daley’s death, it took the Michael Bilandic and Jane Byrne mayoralties before Harold Washington was elected and the progressive era began.

After Washington’s death, it took a Sawyer interim before Mayor Richard M. Daley changed the direction of Chicago politics again.

The 2011 elections are once again the start of a profound transformation.

Anything can happen in the upcoming mayoral election. Instead of 20 candidates, we now have only six. The first televised debate when voters see the candidates together will have a major impact. Mistakes that the candidates make from here on will be critical to the outcome. Most likely, either Carol Moseley Braun or Gery Chico will go into a runoff election with Rahm Emanuel after February 22nd.

Rahm is obviously the leading candidate, but it’s far too early to anoint him mayor. All the polls show him locked at 30 to 40 percent of the vote, with more than 30 percent of the voters still undecided.

The TV blitz showing a kinder, gentler Rahm may swing voters, but he may also have peaked with less than 40 percent of the vote.

Rahm has the support of the white Northwest Side ward committeemen and aldermen. He also has considerable support among the North Side liberal lakefront voters. However, Gery Chico has support of the Southwest Side white ward committeemen like Ald. Eddie Burke.

The racial vote breaks more this way: Whites about 40 percent, blacks about 42 percent, Latinos somewhat more than 10 percent. If Carol Moseley Braun can get 80 percent of the black vote and some white votes while Chico gets most of the Latino vote and cuts into the white vote, there will be a runoff.

If Chico or Braun are in the runoff, the race changes drastically because Rahm is no longer a sure bet.

Meanwhile, this is the most unique aldermanic election in twenty years. First, Mayor Daley won’t be throwing his resources into the battle. Secondly, there are ten vacant seats where aldermen have resigned or gone on to higher office. Now, some election outcomes have already been rigged. And a few, like Ald. Burke, are running unopposed. But labor unions and political groups are predicting a turnover of as many as 20 aldermen. There will not only be a new mayor in town, but a new city council.

The first act of the new council next May will be to decide upon its leaders and committee chairmen. Depending upon who’s the new mayor, this could also create a brand new power structure.

Even if Braun or Chico becomes mayor, don’t expect a new set of “council wars.” And if Rahm is mayor, he may cut a deal with the old guard like Jane Byrne did.

But the council is changing. Most of the independent aldermen like Joe Moore (49th), Bob Fioretti (2nd), Scott Waguespack (32nd), and Ricardo Munoz (25th) will be reelected. And there will be a flock of new aldermen, some of whom community groups and labor unions will help elect.

Expect, for instance, for either Debra Silverstein or Greg Brewer to finally topple Alderman Bernie Stone in the 50th Ward. Reformer and Ward Committeewoman Michele Smith should win out in a hard fought 43rd Ward contest. Will Burns will be an able replacement for Toni Preckwinkle in the 4th Ward. And so it will go throughout the city with more than 250 aldermanic candidates still on the ballot after petition challenges.

On the Northwest Side, Republicans are running candidates who might win in the 41st and 45th wards but are likely to lose. Expect the new council to be all Democrats. The fight will be between the old guard and reformers, with many aldermen not identified with either faction until they see which way the political winds are blowing.

---

By The Revealer from Rogers Park
Posted: 02/04/2011 10:24 PM

"Kim from West Rogers Park" is a Bernie Stone staffer doing Bernie's typical trickery. Enough!

---

By Ted from West Ridge
Posted: 02/04/2011 10:20 PM

After the Rockwell and Devon building disaster leading to thugs beating up former and present candidate Greg Brewer it is absolutely clear that it is time for a change in the 50th ward. And nepotism isn\'t the answer.

---

By LincolnPark43Watcher from Old Town
Posted: 01/28/2011 3:24 AM

Michele is an officer of the court but knowingly breaks election law: http://www.scribd.com/doc/47708472/Michele-Smith-For-Alderman-org-Breaks-Election-Law-Complaint-Chicago-Board-of-Elections http://www.scribd.com/doc/47708239/MicheleSmithforAlderman-org-Breaks-Election-Law-Evidence

---

By Kim from West Rogers Park
Posted: 01/22/2011 12:09 PM

The 50th Ward has a great asset in Alderman Stone and Vice-Mayor/Bldg Comm. Chmn. Stone\'s seniority gives the ward\'s residents the greatest amount of influence in city govt. Frankly, his opponents ,any of which would be a meaningless freshman,collectively aren\'t fit to carry Stone\'s briefcase. Silverstein and her husband are pursuing this to consolidate all the POWER and influence in one houseand Brewer is against any development(s) unless he and his band of bungalow bigots approve it.

---

By chandeyesson from EDGEWATER BEACH
Posted: 01/21/2011 2:41 PM

And yes, the 46th and the 48th Wards could use a good housecleaning too!

---

By Concerned Citizen from West Rogers Park
Posted: 01/21/2011 9:40 AM

Silverstein or Brewer will end the Stone era. The community needs to remember to keep a balance of power and not recreate it by putting too much power under one roof like Anonymous said. Brewer was was involved in building a better neighborhood long before Silverstein threw her hat in the ring following her husbands shirt tails.

---

By Faisal from Rogers Park
Posted: 01/21/2011 0:43 AM

You mention the old machine, Debra & Ira and then Gerg Brewer, who by the way ran last time and could not overtake an ethnic candidate, Naisy Dolar. Greg Brewer will probably muster up his 1,000 or so votes but with the high population of South Asian, black and hispanic votes I definitely not count out Ahmed Khan, a lifelong resident of the 50th and a professional community activist.

---

By Anonymous from West Ridge - W Rogers Pk
Posted: 01/20/2011 3:38 PM

The 50th Ward needs cleaning up - where Dick Simpson used to live. Debra Silverstein & State Senator Ira supported B. Stone at last election. They are a new version of old "Chicago Politics".....she became interested in the job after her husband became the Ward Committeeman and on his payroll. Too much power in one family....of 2!! BEST CANDIDATE is Greg Brewer involved with the community before he thought about running. Architect for Skidmore & told us about what was planned for the 50th.

---

By R from Northwest Side
Posted: 01/20/2011 2:27 PM

"On the Northwest Side, Republicans are running candidates who might win in the 41st and 45th wards but are likely to lose." That a pretty bold statement from a publication that provides "News of South Loop, Near West, and West Loop". Have you seen the campaign been waged in the 45th Ward? I wouldn't write the Republican candidate off...

---

By Mike from Lincoln Park
Posted: 01/20/2011 12:18 PM

Michele Smith should stop calling herself the committeeman. She was elected the Democratic Committeeman. She went against the people that elected her by endorsing an independent, and a loser. She could have chose not to endorse at all in that race. Shame on her.

---

By Joe Lake from Chicago
Posted: 01/20/2011 8:09 AM

Reelect 32nd Ward Ald. Scott Waguespack http://scottforchicago.com Joe Lake, Chicago